Brazil World Cup 2014 groups are ready to kick off the tournament at Sao Paolo. If you’re looking for a favorite team to root for, keep in mind that ‘its really hard to beat Brazil in Brazil.’ That minimizes your options to just Brazil!
Fivethrityeight.com has unveiled an interactive (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/) that determines the chances of each team to advance past the group stage and gradually win the Word Cup 2014. The prediction is founded on the Soccer Power index or SPI. SPI is an algorithm created between ESPN and Nate Silver in 2010.
SPI weighs Brazil as the clear favorite, tagging a 45% chance of a World Cup 2014 victory. That figure compares to 13% for Argentina, 11% for Germany and 8% for defending champions Spain.
Although Brazil expects to win by a margin, but it may not win by the wide margin it expects. Brazil’s price at the Betfair betting market implies that the home team has a 23% chance of grabbing the World Cup 2014. That’s just slightly better than Argentinas 19 percent, Germany’s 13% and Spains 13%.
Historically, Germany, Argentina, Spain and Brazil have done well in the World Cup tournaments. It would be different if the Word Cup 2014 was played but the Brazil World Cup 2014 is in Brazil. The country’s last loss at home was at a friendly game on August 12, 2002 versus Paraguay.
Winning against Paraguay may not have been a priority for the Brazilians. Brazil won the World Cup in Japan in the summer but it was the homecoming game. Brazil started with all its regulars and by halftime, they were all substituted midway in the game.
When you think about, it appears that the home-field advantage is decreasing in international soccer. Travel distances are not very far away. It is also true the best players from Argentina or Brazil might be playing in Europe.